With Iran firing missiles at every Gulf state and closing the Strait of Hormuz, Britain is involved whether we wish it or not
As crisis sweeps the Middle East, two propositions are both true. Sir Keir Starmer is right to keep Britain out of Donald Trump’s strategically illiterate and morally unconscionable assault on Iran.
But, at the same time, the Prime Minister has manifestly failed in his duty to protect British citizens and interests in the Gulf and Cyprus from an entirely predictable hail of incoming Iranian missiles and drones.
He neglected to pre-deploy a British destroyer capable of shooting down ballistic missiles, even though he knew – or should have known – that Iran had spent decades amassing the biggest arsenal of these weapons in the Middle East for the sole purpose of bombarding its Gulf neighbours following any American or Israeli attack.
Now, having issued belated sailing orders to HMS Dragon, Sir Keir must steel himself for the next logical step. Britain may have had no interest in America and Israel starting this war, but now that it has started, this war is interested in us.
The surest way of protecting British people and assets is by destroying Iran’s missiles on the ground before they are launched. Sir Keir will let America use two British bases – Diego Garcia and RAF Fairford – for this purpose, though not for the wider assault on Iran.
Having made Britain legally and morally part of the specific mission against the missiles, is Sir Keir really going to leave the US to bear the costs and risks of the strikes themselves, regardless of the fact that they will be shielding 300,000 Britons in the Gulf?
On that point – and that alone – Mr Trump would be right to feel aggrieved. Yet, on the wider question of the strategic wisdom of this war, Sir Keir should not be swayed by Trumpian sound and fury.
No military operation can succeed without a clear political objective; hence the great Carl von Clausewitz described war as the “continuation of politics by other means”.
Does Mr Trump want to bring down the Islamic Republic and trigger regime change? Or does he seek a deal with the existing leadership after the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei? Or is this about destroying Iran’s nuclear plants all over again – the same ones that were pulverised last June – and stopping the regime from firing missiles and sponsoring terrorists?
READ MORE: Starmer Criticizes Trump’s Iran Strategy as Special Relationship Faces Major Strain
Mr Trump leaps whimsically between all of these goals. Unless he is willing to invade Iran with hundreds of thousands of US troops, full regime change can only be achieved by a popular uprising.
Whether millions of Iranians are going to launch a revolution is not within Mr Trump’s control; nor can he know who would then take power.
So when he telephones the British Prime Minister and asks for support, he would be floored by the basic question: “what is your objective?”
Without getting a clear answer, I doubt whether any British Prime Minister – not even Sir Tony Blair when he held the responsibility of office – would have joined this operation. Margaret Thatcher would have nailed Mr Trump to a metaphorical wall until he had spelt out what he was planning to achieve.
Unless an insurrection breaks out inside Iran, the most likely outcome is that the regime will still be in power when America and Israel call off their onslaught, except that its leadership will be even more extreme and utterly determined to go all-out for nuclear weapons as the only guarantee of survival.
The cost will be ruinous and they will need years to rebuild the infrastructure, but they will eat grass and leaves if they have to and they will get a bomb in the end. Mr Trump risks creating exactly the menace that he wants to prevent.
But now that Iran is firing missiles at every Gulf state and jeopardising the world economy by closing the Strait of Hormuz, Britain is involved whether we wish it or not. HMS Dragon, when she finally arrives, will provide some defence against missiles, yet nothing is better than destroying them on the ground.
The RAF has sent over 20 Typhoons and F35s to Cyprus and Qatar, a big deployment by its standards, and more than would be needed to shoot down drones. Sir Keir is giving himself the option of striking Iran’s missiles on the ground. Why else would he consider sending the carrier, HMS Prince of Wales? The only question is whether he can summon the will to do what may prove necessary.
READ MORE: Kemi Badenoch demands Starmer’s immediate resignation and warns of no-confidence vote