‘That’s not a no’: Could Health Minister Mark Butler be Australia’s next Prime Minister?
As Anthony Albanese prepares to overtake Paul Keating this year in tenure as Prime Minister, a surprising frontrunner to replace him has emerged.
Health Minister Mark Butler has been grilled on his ambitions to lead the Labor Party if the Prime Minister retires, insisting he wants him to “stick around” to serve a full-term.
Widely regarded as the surprise frontrunner because of his close relationship with the Prime Minister and his power and influence within the now dominant Left faction, Mr Butler has been front and centre this week due to his plans to overhaul the National Disability Insurance Scheme.
But for political insiders, the huge reform task is fascinating for another reason: the Health Minister who spent big on Medicare to help the Prime Minister win the last election is now taking on a tough reform task that will create enemies.
The obvious contenders to replace Mr Albanese are the high-profile Treasurer Jim Chalmers and Defence Minister Richard Marles, who both hail from the Right faction.
But those contenders grapple with significant political baggage.
First, the rise of the Left faction means the Right no longer commands control of the party.
Second, Mr Albanese would undoubtedly favour Mr Butler, who has stuck by him through thick and thin and helped him win a second term under the banner of Medicare.
And with Mr Albanese on track to overtake Paul Keating’s four years and 82 days in office to become Australia’s eleventh longest-serving Prime Minister, minds are turning to what will happen if he decides to pull the pin.
“Do you want to replace, or have any ambitions to replace Anthony Albanese eventually, as the Labor leader and Prime Minister of this country?,” Sky News host Andrew Clennell asked.
“Anthony was only re-elected less than 12 months ago with a huge majority. He’s got a very big agenda,” Mr Butler replied.
“He’s steering the country through probably the worst global fuel crisis we’ve experienced, if not ever, then certainly for 50 years.
“He’s not going anywhere. And you know, I’ve supported Anthony probably more closely and more consistently than anyone else in the caucus.
“I don’t want him to go anywhere. I feel privileged to be able to serve under him, and I think I’ve got the best job in government supporting Australians’ needs in health and disability and aging.
“So, you know, less than 12 months after an election where he won an emphatic victory, I want to see him stick around for the long term.”
The Sky News host accurately diagnosed that the diplomatic answer didn’t sound like a no.
“It’s not something we’re thinking about,” Mr Butler said.
“I mean, Anthony, I think, said last week he’s enjoying the job. It’s a hard job, but I think right across government, we want him to stay in it for the long term. Certainly I do.”
The unofficial method of tracking Labor leadership contenders is a regular spot on Sunrise. Mr Butler ticks that box.
As does Tanya Plibersek, but she is no longer regarded as a contender for the job and would never command the power within the Left faction that Mr Butler, a former ALP president would command.
Mr Butler would be backed as a candidate by Foreign Minister and Senate leader Penny Wong, who is one of his longest political allies.
Born in Canberra in 1970 before his parents divorced and he relocated home to Adelaide, he comes with a surprising political pedigree.
Both Mr Butler’s great-grandfather and great-great-grandfather were conservative premiers of South Australia.
Mr Butler’s great-great-grandfather Sir Richard Butler was a member of the South Australian House of Assembly from 1890 to 1924 and served as Premier of South Australia from 1905 to 1909.
His son, also called Richard Butler, who became known as Sir Richard Layton Butler, became South Australian Premier in 1927.
He steered the state through the Great Depression before fostering new investments for the BHP Whyalla steelworks, British Tube Mills, ICI and Holden Motor Body Builders.
He quit as premier to enter federal politics, a failed bid that ended his career.
Mr Butler’s own father, David Butler was a public servant and Vietnam War conscript.
His mother was a peace and antinuclear activist and campaigned to elect the Hawke and Keating governments.
Mr Butler then entered the Labor Party through the traditional modern route: a law degree at Adelaide University followed by work in the South Australian union movement.
Next year, he will mark his 20th anniversary representing SA in federal parliament, a good time as any to become PM.